Can XRP Flip Bitcoin? What David Schwartz Said and How the Math Works
David Schwartz said XRP could pass Bitcoin by growing faster. What he really said, how flip-price math works, and why escrow and Bitcoin move the target.
Key takeaways
- On September 9, 2026, David Schwartz said he thinks XRP could pass Bitcoin over the long run by growing faster. He gave no price target and no timeline.
- Posts claiming Schwartz confirmed a $60 XRP were made up. There is no number in the recording.
- A 'flip price' is just Bitcoin's market cap divided by an XRP supply figure. Change either input and the answer changes.
- With about 37 billion XRP still in escrow, results differ sharply depending on whether you divide by circulating supply or the full 100 billion.
- Before trusting any flip price, ask which coin count was used and what Bitcoin price was assumed.
In September 2026, David Schwartz, Ripple’s CTO emeritus and an original architect of the XRP Ledger, was asked on a live audio call whether XRP could ever pass Bitcoin. He said yes. Within a day, posts claimed he had confirmed a specific XRP price. He hadn’t.
The Bullrunners video separates what Schwartz actually said from the headlines, then walks through the arithmetic anyone can use to check a “flip price.” The key lesson is that there is no single number, because both inputs keep moving.
What did David Schwartz actually say?
On September 9, 2026, Schwartz took listener questions on an audio call on X hosted by an NFT creator. Asked whether XRP could pass Bitcoin, he said: “Yeah, I do. I think it would happen from XRP growing faster than Bitcoin.” He added that it was probably more likely than not over the long run.
The video highlights the part most posts cut out. Schwartz said the change would come from XRP offering higher functionality or speed, or features Bitcoin cannot support. In his framing:
- The whole market grows, and XRP takes a larger share of that growth.
- It would not happen through Bitcoin shrinking or failing. He said a Bitcoin crash would be bad for everyone.
- He gave no timeline and no price target.
Within a day, posts claimed he had confirmed a $60 XRP. According to the video, fact-checkers went back through the recording and found no number in it. He said the math works; he did not make a forecast.
Four terms you need for the math
The video defines four words before running any numbers:
- Market cap. The price of one coin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. It is not money sitting inside the asset. The video compares it to a house: if a neighbor’s house sells for $1 million, nobody handed your street $1 million.
- Circulating supply. How many coins are actually out in the market, versus how many are still locked away. Bitcoin can never exceed 21 million coins. XRP has 100 billion in total, with about 62.9 billion in circulation at the time of the video.
- Escrow. Coins locked on the ledger that unlock on a public schedule, like a layaway counter: the goods are real and counted, but come out on set dates.
- Finality. The point at which a payment cannot be reversed. A check that a bank can still pull back is not final.
How do you calculate XRP’s “flip price”?
Divide Bitcoin’s market cap by XRP’s supply. That gives the price XRP would need for its market cap to equal Bitcoin’s at that moment.
Using the video’s figures at the time of recording:
- Bitcoin market cap: about $1.73 trillion
- XRP market cap: about $98.9 billion, a gap of roughly 17 to 1
- XRP circulating supply: about 62.9 billion
- XRP price: about $1.57
$1.73 trillion divided by 62.9 billion gives roughly $27.53 per XRP, about 17.5 times the price at the time. That is the number in the video’s title. It is a calculation, not a prediction.
Why does the flip price keep changing?
Because both inputs move. The $27.53 figure assumes Bitcoin stands still, and Schwartz’s own argument assumes the whole market grows.
The video cites published calculations from September 2026 showing how much the target shifts with Bitcoin’s market cap:
| Bitcoin market cap | XRP supply used | Approximate flip price |
|---|---|---|
| $1.5 trillion | Circulating (about 62.9 billion) | $23.91 |
| $1.73 trillion | Circulating (about 62.9 billion) | $27.53 |
| About $2.5 trillion (old high) | Circulating (about 62.9 billion) | Just under $40 |
| $1.73 trillion | Total (100 billion) | About $17.30 |
The video’s point: the higher Bitcoin goes, the higher XRP’s target goes. Many people assume XRP needs Bitcoin to crash. Schwartz said the opposite.
The swing can be large. According to the video, Bitcoin’s market cap was near $2.5 trillion around October 2025 and about $1.7 trillion at the time of recording, a change of about $770 billion in a year. XRP’s flip price moved with it.
How does XRP’s escrow change the answer?
This is the part the video says most flip articles skip. In December 2017, Ripple locked 55 billion XRP in a time-based escrow so the release schedule would be public.
- Every month, 1 billion XRP unlocks.
- Ripple usually relocks 60% to 80% of it in new escrow contracts.
- So about 200 to 400 million XRP reaches the market each month, not a full billion.
- As of mid-2026, roughly 31 to 38 billion XRP remained locked, depending on the month.
Dividing by circulating supply gives the higher number ($27.53). Dividing by all 100 billion gives the lower one ($17.30). The video says both are correct; they answer different questions. As escrowed coins are released over time, the coin count goes up and the price needed to match Bitcoin goes down.
Schwartz has also pushed back on calls for Ripple to burn the escrow. His point, per the video, is that burning coins changes the count but does not create demand. Growth is what matters.
Why does Schwartz think XRP could grow faster?
His argument is about the network, not the price. The video compares the two:
| XRP Ledger | Bitcoin base layer | |
|---|---|---|
| How it reaches agreement | Validators, no mining | Mining |
| Settlement time | 3 to 5 seconds, final | About 10 minutes per block; several blocks for confidence |
| Throughput | Around 1,500 transactions per second | About 3 to 7 per second |
| Fees | A small fixed fraction of a cent | Floats with demand; spiked past $30 in 2021 |
Bitcoin has a faster payment layer, the Lightning Network. The video says its public capacity fell from about 5,600 BTC at a late-2025 peak to roughly 4,000 BTC, with node and channel counts declining through 2026, and more than half of public capacity concentrated in about five entities.
The video is careful to say Schwartz is not claiming Bitcoin is broken. Bitcoin was built to be a vault, and that is a valid job.
What is the case against XRP flipping Bitcoin?
The video presents three counterpoints:
- Supply control. Bitcoin’s 21 million cap is fixed by code, with no company able to release more. XRP has an issuer: Ripple holds the escrow and controls the release schedule. Every move is visible on the ledger, but a company has a hand on the tap.
- Bitcoin is doing its job. Spot Bitcoin funds hold roughly $102 billion, Strategy Inc. holds 846,000 BTC and the US government holds 328,000 BTC, according to the video.
- The rules are unfinished. XRP won a favorable ruling in July 2023 that the token itself is not a security, but the Clarity Act, which would set rules for the whole market, is stalled in the Senate.
How to check the next flip price you see
Ask two questions of any XRP-flips-Bitcoin number:
- Which XRP coin count did they use? Circulating supply or the full 100 billion?
- What Bitcoin market cap did they assume? Today’s, a past high or a guess?
If a post can’t answer both, it isn’t math. And the one question nobody can answer is timing. Schwartz gave no date, and the video is clear that none of these figures is a forecast.
Frequently asked questions
Did David Schwartz say XRP will flip Bitcoin?
On a September 9, 2026 audio call on X, Schwartz said he thinks it could happen, probably more likely than not over the long run, through XRP growing faster than Bitcoin. He said it would not come from Bitcoin shrinking, and he gave no timeline or price target.
What price would XRP need to match Bitcoin's market cap?
Using the figures in the video at the time of recording, about $27.53 per XRP based on roughly 62.9 billion XRP in circulation, or about $17.30 if all 100 billion XRP were counted. These are arithmetic, not forecasts, and they change whenever Bitcoin's market cap changes.
Did Schwartz confirm a $60 XRP?
No. According to the video, fact-checkers reviewed the recording and found no number in it. He said the math works, but did not make a price forecast.
How much XRP is still in escrow?
The video puts it at roughly 31 to 38 billion XRP as of mid-2026, depending on the month. Ripple locked 55 billion XRP in escrow in December 2017; 1 billion unlocks each month and most of it is usually relocked.
Education and commentary only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Do your own research and speak to a qualified advisor before making investment decisions. Figures and quotes are as reported in the video on September 27, 2026 and may have changed since.
